Dollar continues to sit lower, but off the lows earlier

Technical Analysis

The market is exuding calmer tones, but volatility is still present

GBP/USD D1 20-03

The dollar is still the weakest performing major currency today but it has pared some of its heavier losses seen earlier in the session, as the market continues to keep the calm ahead of North American trading.

As mentioned earlier, this period is one of those which is a bit weird where equities and bonds moving in tandem is actually a healthier sign in the market – since it reflects well on central bank action throughout the week so far.

The fact that the dollar is also correcting lower today also goes to show that the market is taking heart in central bank action to contain the carnage seen over the past two weeks.

The dollar is still trading over 2% lower against the likes of the aussie, kiwi and pound. And in the case of the latter, cable has been trading around 1.1730 to 1.1870 over the past few hours and is now back under the 23.6 retracement level @ 1.1834.

From a technical perspective, that will be a key level to eye on the daily chart but also the 100-hour moving average – which is now at 1.1899 – as that will be a key line in the sand in terms of defining the near-term bias in the pair.

The dollar is going to be the key factor in the equation for the pair as we look towards the weekend – and for all other currencies as well – so we’ll have to see how much and for how long investors think that the central bank action can contain the market carnage.

There may be relief for now, but the longer the global lockdown and economic fallout persists, you can’t rule out more disorderly movements in the market down the road.

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