38.2% retracement stalls support
The EURUSD based last week against its 200 day moving average (see green line in the chart below). That hold and the narrowing interest rate differential between US and European yields helped to push the EURUSD higher over the last few days. The rise over the last few days took the price above the 38.2% retracement of the move down from the March 2018 high. That level comes in at 1.14563. The high price yesterday reached 1.14918 before rotating lower.
Today, looking at the daily chart above, the price high stalled against the 38.2% retracement level at 1.14563. The high price reached 1.1457. Holding that level if sellers a reason to rotate the price lower in trading today.
Drilling to the hourly chart below, the price action today fell below a upward sloping trendline. Holding below that level was another bearish intraday clue. However the fall lower has found support near the 38.2% retracement of the move up from the base at the 200 day moving average. The price has traded below that retracement level at 1.13401 with a low price of 1.1331, but momentum to the downside has been limited. We currently trade at 1.1380 area.
If the corrective move lower is to continue, getting and staying below the 1.13401 level would be needed. If so, a move toward the rising 100 hour moving average at 1.12854 and moving higher, would be eyed. The price of the EURUSD has not traded below its 100 hour moving average since February 21. As long as the price can remain above that level over the intermediate-term, the buyers are still in control.
It is a corrective day lower in the EURUSD with some negative technical developments. However, support is holding and the price still remains above its 100 hour moving average. So a battle between the buyers and sellers is on.