Forex technical analysis: NZDUSD threatens a close above the 200 day MA, but sellers are leaning

Technical Analysis

200 day MA at 0.71036. 50% retracement at 0.70959…

The NZDUSD is threatening to close above its 200 day MA at the 0.71036. The price has not closed above the MA level since February 28th, 2017.   The 50% of the move down from the Feb 2017 high comes in at 0.70959. The area represents a key line in the sand technically for the pair. A close above is more bullish. A close below keeps the bears more in control.  The price currently trades at 0.7099.  

Drilling to the hourly chart, the price has made two runs to the upside.  Each of those moves, broke above a topside trend line, and both failed and reestablished the trend line as resistance.  Are sellers showing their hand?  Perhaps….and it will certainly be more bearish if the cluster of levels above can keep a lid on the pair. Risk is defined and limited against the area. 

On the downside, the 100 hour MA at 0.70626 and trend line a pip or two below that MA line, is a target level to get below, IF the sellers do prevail. This week, that MA line was tested (and breached by a few pips), and bounced.  The 100 day MA is also a key level at 0.70554.  Be aware.

The sellers are making a play below the 200 day MA.  Stay below and there is room to correct to the downside (with limited risk). 

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