Gold falls and looks toward the minimum retracement target

Technical Analysis

Trend line and 100 hour MA left behind (on the topside)

The price of gold made a run lower in trading today.

Trend line and 100 hour MA left behind (on the topside)
The fall was helped technically after the price fell below a topside trend line yesterday (see post from late yesterday HERE). The underside of the trend line was retested before moving lower today.  

The run to the downside has fallen below the 200 hour MA, but momentum stalled. The last 6-7 hours have seen the price move above and below that MA level. The market is unsure of the next move.

Adding to the apprehension technically, is the price has not been able to reach or breach the 38.2% of the move up from the April 1 low at $ 1679.26.  If the sellers are to take more control, the price needs to reach and breach the 38.2% retracement level.  Absent that, and the correction is simply a plain-vanilla correction/retracement. That is… the sellers are really not taking the bull (or bear) by the horns.  We could see a rebound and resumption of the bull move.

So, sellers have been rewarded with a $ 30 decline today. However, there is work to do to reap more rewards.    

What would ruin the party for the sellers looking for more?  

The $ 1709.18 area is home to swing lows from Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday. Move back above that level and the waters become a little more muddy.  

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