Here is a forecast of -90,000 for the Australian March employment report (& preview)

Forex

The March 2020 Australian labour market survey was conducted in the earlier part of March prior to the lock down restrictions really hitting.

  • Data release due at 0130GMT  

I posted expectations earlier:

  • Employment Change: K expected -30K, prior +26.7K
  • Unemployment Rate: % expected 5.4%, prior 5.1%
  • Full Time Employment Change: K prior was +6.7K
  • Part Time Employment Change: K prior was +20K
  • Participation Rate: % expected 65.9%, prior was 66.0%

As part of previews:

Note that while the median consensus is for a -30K result, some of the bank estimates are much, much higher:

  • NAB is at -90k
  • JP Morgan Securities is at -80K
  • RBC is at -75K
  • TD -60k
  • Barclays -50.4k

RBC preview:

  • survey period for March labour force was the first two weeks of the month prior to the step-up in social distancing measures
  • Nevertheless, we will likely see some impact as businesses began to stand down or shed labour amid a reduction in turnover and expectations of tougher restrictions
  • decline in the participation rate is likely as well and may temper the move in the UR to ~5.6%
  •  There will be a number of other key metrics that will likely show a weakening in the broader labour market, including a decline in hours worked, employment/population and higher underemployment rate.
The March 2020 Australian labour market survey was conducted in the earlier part of March prior to the lock down restrictions really hitting.

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