Technical Analysis

A look at the technical landscape

EUR/USD: Shift from bullish to neutral: In a 1.1100/1.1250 range.

While the stop-loss for the bearish phase in EUR that started on 17 May is still intact at 1.1130, the weak NY closing last Friday is enough to indicate that the bearish phase has ended. This development is not surprising and we have warned last Friday that “it is getting increasingly likely that the bullish phase is nearing an end”. The current movement is viewed as the start of a consolidation phase even though the immediate bias is for a probe lower towards the bottom of the expected 1.1100/1.1250 consolidation range. Looking further ahead, EUR has to move clearly above the recent high near 1.1265/70 to indicate the start of a fresh bullish phase.

GBP/USD: Bearish: To take partial profit at 1.2755/60.

The shift to a bearish stance last Friday, 26 May (spot at 1.2900) was timely as GBP plummeted and exceeded the immediate target of 1.2830 (low of 1.2775). The bearish phase is still clearly intact even though the decline appears to be running ahead of itself and those who are short should look to take partial profit near 1.2755/60 (next support is at the February’s peak near 1.2705). 

AUD/USD: Neutral: In a 0.7380/0.7480 range.

We just turned neutral AUD last Friday and there is no change to the view. The current move is viewed as part of a consolidation phase even though the immediate bias for a probe lower towards the bottom of the expected 0.7380/0.7480 sideway trading range. 

NZD/USD: Bullish: To take partial profit at 0.7075/80.

The bullish phase that started last Tuesday, 23 May (spot at 0.7000) is still intact as NZD hit a fresh high of 0.7077 on Friday. However, the up-move is accompanied by glaring ‘bearish divergence’ and the odds for extension to 0.7090 are not high. Those who are long should look to book partial profit if there is another move towards 0.7075/80. 

USD/JPY: Neutral: Still sideway albeit within a narrower 110.50/112.50 range.

USD dipped to a low of 110.85 last Friday before rebounding quickly. There is no change the neutral outlook for USD and we continue expect sideway trading, albeit within a narrower 110.50/112.50 range (from 110.20/113.10 previously). Looking further ahead, the downside appears to be more vulnerably but solid support can be expected at 110.50 ahead of the month-to-date low near 110.20. 

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