The Australian dollar is being rewarded for domestic virus containment

Technical Analysis

The numbers in Australia are upbeat

There was always going to be a time when the market began to reward winners and losers in the coronavirus fight. The countries that limit infections and offer stimulus with minimal waste and turmoil will benefit, and so will their currencies.

Earlier today we learned that Australian retail sales were up a record 8.2% in preliminary data for March. That was undoubtedly due to stocking up but it also shows at least the capacity to buy things.

More importantly, Australia has basically conquered coronations. That’s going to allow large parts of its economy to re-open, aside from tourism. There are just 1540 active cases in the country and all are mild. There have been just 76 confirmed deaths. New cases are almost nil.

The numbers in Australia are upbeat

Ultimately, there are going to be severe knock-on cases to global growth but right now the market simply isn’t focused on that.

There are also some things from Australia — particularly gold — that are in high demand.

Technically is where the story gets compelling. We broke out above the late-March highs two weeks ago then successfully retested them yesterday.

AUDUSD daily

We’ve almost completed the full lap now and it looks like the gap is going to close.

See here for global coronavirus case data

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