Jobs day in the US
The NZD is the strongest and the CAD is the weakest as the North American session begins on what is jobs day in the US. The weekly initial jobless claims will be released at 8:30 AM ET/1230 GMT with an estimate of 1350K. At the same time the labor department will release their monthly employment statistics with the change in nonfarm payrolls expected at 3058K. Last month the change was 2509K. These numbers can have a huge impact on markets. Moreover, the data is subject to huge fluctuations as a result of the unique economic conditions due to the coronavirus. Risk is highly elevated. The US dollar is mostly lower with the NZDUSD accounting for the biggest change as it trends to the upside.
Looking at the ranges and changes, the USDJPY and USDCAD are both trading near unchanged on the day. The NZDUSD is trading at the highs for the day as it trends higher. The AUDUSD is also higher but gains are modest. The ranges in the major pairs vs the USD and the major crosses are mostly modest and below the 22 day averages (about a month of trading – see red line in the lower chart below). The market is waiting for the numbers (or so it seems).
In other markets:
- spot gold is trading near unchanged at $ 1770 of $ 0.60. The price of gold reached another multiyear high yesterday only to fall $ 30 lower intraday before settling nearer the sessions low at $ 1759
- WTI crude oil futures for August delivery are trading up $ 0.32 or 0.80% at $ 40.14. The high price reached $ 40.42. The low price extended to $ 39.46.
In the US equity markets, the futures are implying a further move to the upside for the major indices. Yesterday the NASDAQ and S&P both rose with the NASDAQ leading the way with a 0.95% gain. The Dow industrial average however did not participate as it fell -0.3%. The snapshot of the market currently shows
- Dow industrial average up 222 points
- S&P index up 21.39 points
- NASDAQ index up 66.5 points
In the European equity markets the major indices are also marching to the upside and benefiting from the tailwinds from the afternoon trading in the US:
- German DAX +1.84%
- France’s CAC, +1.7%
- UK’s FTSE 100, +0.96%
- Spain’s Ibex, +2.5%
- Italy’s FTSE MIB, +1.98%
In the US debt market yields are little changed with yields up but only by less than 0.5 basis point across curve.
In the European debt market, the benchmark 10 year yields are moving lower and retracing gains seen in yesterday’s trading.