USDJPY Breakout Likely, As Sentiment Shifts

Technical Analysis

USDJPY Breakout Likely, As Sentiment Shifts

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USDJPY: Retail trader data shows 67.7% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 2.1 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-long since Dec 29 when USDJPY traded near 113.533; price has moved 6.9% lower since then. The percentage of traders net-long is now its lowest since Mar 11 when USDJPY traded near 106.9. The number of traders net-long is 10.1% lower than yesterday and 9.9% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 9.3% higher than yesterday and 17.6% higher from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests USDJPY prices may continue to fall. Yet traders are less net-long than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current USDJPY price trend may soon reverse higher despite the fact traders remain net-long.

— Written by Dylan Jusino, DailyFX Research

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