I posted earlier on what is expected from the data:
Also released will be Q1 retail sales data, which will also rise substantially, though given the surge late in the quarter the impact here will be less extreme,
For the AUD, its sensible to think the expectations are not only built-in to the rate currently but also that we’ll all be sensible enough to recognise the stale nature of this data. Yeah, right! I suspect a strong result will see a short-lived bounce in AUD regardless. On the other hand, a miss will likely prompt some weakness. All else being equal of course.