CPI data coming up at the bottom of the hour
Inflation data is going to have top billing at some point this decade but it’s not going to be today. The US CPI report is due at the bottom of the hour and I don’t see how it could be a market mover. The consensus is for a 1.2% y/y rise and 1.6% ex-food and energy. That’s higher than in most places and the numbers have disappointed in several countries, so risks are on the downside despite yesterday’s PPI beat.
The other part that’s going to be tough to read is the wage data. It’s been skewed for months because high-income earners have continued to work during the pandemic and low-wage workers have been laid off. The prior report showed a 4.2% y/y rise in average weekly earnings.
Otherwise it’s a light schedule. We will get some comments from the ECB’s Schnabel around the same time as the US data and there’s Canadian capacity utilization but otherwise it will be all about the ebb and flow.